andcurve.weblog - The weblog of Kevin Teljeur. Somewhere within all the noise, there is a note you need to hear.

So to Tadhg’s second question, which was about Fianna Fail’s chances for re-election. First, have a read of this page about the workings of the centre piece of the Irish political system, the Dail (or parliament).
I think there’s an even chance that Fianna Fail won’t be back in government after the election. For those of you who don’t know how this works here, Ireland has the highest number of elected representatives per head of population compared to almost anywhere else in the world. There really are a lot of them, all well paid I might add, and several political parties; the main ones are Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour, Green Party, Sinn Fein, Progressive Democrats, Socialist Worker’s Party. Now you’ve seen Wikipedia’s possibly somewhat shaky take on who is who (or indeed what) in Irish politics (and some of those entries are a little suspect; the Progressive Democrats have a very plain and uninteresting entry for a party which has had a colourful and occasionally controversial role in recent Irish politics), have a look at the most recent election results.

Fianna Fail has been steadily declining in terms of support over the last few years, requiring more and more support from other parties to form a stable government. They’ve been in power for ten entire years at this point, which is quite a run. Their main opposition has been from Fine Gael, who got a solid hiding in the last election because the economy was doing well and everyone agreed that the un-charismatic, unimaginative Fine Gael were the last people that anyone wanted to see in power, presiding over the new-found wealth. Labour has remained steady, since they always have a reliable and steady number of civil servants and working-class voters to rely on for support. The Progressive Democrats started well, but since they took on the hot potatoes of the health service and justice, they’ve dropped down in poll ratings. Picking a charmless oaf for a party leader surely can’t have helped either. Sinn Fein have been steadily rising, since they do a lot of work on the ground to improve people’s lives and since the peace process in Northern Ireland went well, they can slowly start shaking off the label of being the political wing of the world’s most successful terrorist organisation. The Greens have been seeing the benefits of both becoming a better, more organised political party and also because environmental issues are now genuinely important in the eyes of many voters.

After ten years, some of the fundamental problems that affect Ireland still haven’t been solved, and with that the opposition parties have been able to make some remarkable promises to fix that, Issues such as health, transport, housing, crime… As I wrote before, although things in Ireland are good, they could be better, and if you work hard and pay out a lot of basic living expenses then you’re more sensitive to the idea that you’re money is being misspent by the State you pay taxes to. Fianna Fail is generally seen to be corrupt and beholden to various vested interests; I think Fine Gael have as much to answer for in that way as Fianna Fail, but because they’re in opposition and a much smaller party it doesn’t tend to get noticed as much. I think people are interested in the idea of someone else running the show for a term, interested in the (sometimes outrageous) promises of those parties to make changes.

At the start of the campaigning, I really thought Fianna Fail would get back in to power because it looked like people wouldn’t buy the idea that Fine Gael, together with Labour and perhaps the Greens as coalition partners, would make a credible alternative government. I wasn’t too despairing of the idea, since it looked unlikely that any coalition partner that Fianna Fail would need to take on to get a parliamentary majority (and so, power) would agree also to having the Progressive Democrats onboard, and that would likely have meant the Green Party as a coalition partner for Fianna Fail (since Labour – previously having partnered with Fianna Fail – had made a pre-election agreement with Fine Gael, and no-one will partner with Sine Fein). That actually looked good to me. In the past I’ve been very despairing of the electorate’s continual choice of Fianna Fail as majority party because of their association with corruption and bad policies, but I’m coming around to thinking that they might be the best of a bad lot; they have the experience to do the job, and I’ll explain later on what has me thinking that.

It’ll be Fine Gael with Labour and possibly the Green Party as the next government. There might on polling day be a sudden shift in the way people will vote, but it’s likely that Fianna Fail aren’t going to get the votes they need to get back into power with the Progressive Democrats alone, and the Progressive Democrats are going to be wiped out. And you know, I’m not even sure that a change in government is going to be a very good thing at this moment in time…

I’m in Timisoara, Romania right now. And the beautiful weather we had here at the start of the week… It’s all gone.

Just thought I’d mention that.

David remarked on how it took too long for me to write posts, and he’s right. I do. I was a little surprised that he noticed, in a way, because a part of me always had this idea that David was really emoting with the sound made by the shapes of the letters in the text of my post, rather than reading all that shite and actually taking it in. Anyway, he let me know in his ‘I’m a fucktard’ manner but I like him so I figured I’d give it a go and start posting slightly more often. I need to edit before I start writing, that’s really the big problem at the moment. And have more time. I’m posting this from Romania, and there’s a kind of ban on me mucking about on the Interwebs after office hours.

Anyway, and so the race started weeks ago. I’ve never paid a lot of attention to elections before, because I had a vague idea of who to vote for even though it never had much apparent effect before, but now I really feel like I’m what is known as a stakeholder; someone with a vested interest in the outcome of the election. I’ve been born and raised in this country, and my taxes get paid here, which makes me a contributor to whatever direction this country takes in the future.

I had an idea for a brief ‘Kev’s take on the Irish political scene’ but instead I came up with an analogy which I like (always a bad sign, and taken in less civilised countries as a portent of doom) and which will maybe make it easier for people who aren’t in Ireland to follow, and I will post this as a follow on to this post. For those of you in Ireland, then you’ll almost certainly have your own opinion about the situation, and you’ll disagree with at least some of what I say.

In the comments for my last post, Tadhg asked me “so why do you think this election is particularly important? Do you think there’s any chance that it won’t be FF in charge again after it?” and although I had a somewhat whimsical answer, they are very good questions. I think that the forthcoming election is a big deal for several reasons. These reasons are less than scientifically arrived at, and are purely personal opinion.

First off, since the last election the country has changed enormously; to the point that on paper it is almost a different country altogether. And it keeps changing, the rate of change hasn’t levelled off yet. I don’t just mean wealth, but the demographics, the culture, everything. It’s a lot to take in for the indigenous population, it creates massive stresses and strains on society, and when the time comes to make some choices on the direction of all of this, then people will take this more seriously than when there isn’t so much at stake (at the time of the last election, the country was still in a fairly linear wealth-creation process, so there wasn’t a great deal of interest in ‘rocking the boat’; after all, if you’re making more money than ever before, why take risk with that?). People can now see the effect of all of these changes, and I believe that there is now more interest in deciding some of the issues that these changes have created with housing, education, transport (both public and private) and taxation. And let’s not forget immigration, now that ten percent of people in the Republic of Ireland are not natively Irish. That’s a huge population shift in a short space of time. A welcome one, I believe, but one that has been badly handled at a local government level in terms of integration of cultures and adaptation of policies.

Secondly the public’s satisfaction with the current government is relatively low. It’s a combination of a number of things, from the publication of reports in corruption of past (and occasionally current) members of the current governing party, to unpopular decisions by those in power, to pressures in people’s lives caused by the factors described above. For example, while life is generally good here for most people, and earnings are for most people higher than ever before, life doesn’t seem so good when you’re commuting for four hours a day to a job which you maybe not be enjoying a great deal which in turn pays for an ever-increasing mortgage on a house which you rarely do more with than sleep in, in between commuting to and from work. When you then hear that the members of the current government have possibly been lining their own pockets with public finances, or at least have been trading favours, your tolerance is a lot lower. After all, you’ll be much more acutely aware of how much tax you’re paying which is going to those same politicians. Throw in creeping privatisation of the health service and a general lag in the perceived quality of public services behind your expectations, and you’re already thinking that you might want someone else to have a shot at running the show.

Maybe you can add to that the perceived rise in violent crime. It doesn’t necessarily directly affect most people, but they feel that it does. That perception makes people feel less safe, and they start worrying about their safety and why no-one has done anything about it.

And next, there is at some level a feeling that this current prosperity won’t last forever. That’s the nature of these situations, they come and they go, the economy rises and it falls. This is something that most people accept, and indeed we’ve seen it here before in smaller degrees. But all the same, the current incumbents have been saying again and again that this will keep going, because they know what they’re doing, they’ve got control of the economy, and have such a good understanding of the economy that not only did they create this prosperity, they will also sustain it indefinitely. Provided that they get re-elected, of course. I don’t think that this washes with most people. I think people either can see through this, or have it in their nature not to trust such a self-belief. I think they’re right. There have been a number of crucial factors in Ireland’s surging economic growth, but a couple of factors that are going to cause for a problem are that Ireland partly has a circular economy (where, for example, growth in the building industry has fuelled employment, which has fuelled home buying, which has pushed growth in the building industry, which has… You get the idea.) and partly has an economy which was originally built on the premise of Ireland being the cheap location for a skilled workforce, with money coming into the country from the United States, for example, and which it definitely isn’t any more. It is not a cheap place to do business any more. There’s also the matter of massive European Union subsidies, and the Irish state subsidising foreign investment. As you can see at the following link, Ireland hasn’t done too badly from joining the EU. I believe that the free handouts stop this year, and will be directed instead to the twelve countries that recently joined the EU (which is only fair). So, these factors which make it seem like Ireland has a powerful modern economy and infrastructure are actually external factors; when they go, Ireland is better off than it was, but not nearly as wealthy as it appears, and a lot of people stand to lose out.

I have to point out that property is possibly the biggest issue at stake here. If the economy goes down hard, people can’t repay mortgages, people who bought additional property as investments will lose staggering amounts of money, and there will be a national collective trauma as a result. That really will be a bad situation to be in.

I believe that people are aware of these factors and that they’re concerned about what their lives will be like in five year’s time. Will life be as good as it is now, or better? Will it be even more of a rat-race, or will it all have been lost, and Ireland will be starting a humiliating and painful descent back to where it was in the nineteen eighties, with high unemployment and low wages… I don’t think it will be so dramatic of course, but the stakes are high, and whoever gets into government will be in a position to keep things going, prepare for the future or fuck it all up spectacularly. And they know that whoever fucks it up will never, ever be forgiven.

So to Tadhg’s second question, which was about Fianna Fail’s chances for re-election, another post.

So, I’m writing again. I’ve spent a surprising amount of time thinking about how I’d open my next post, what I would write, would I just dive straight in as if it was routine, yet another post (perhaps even with some outrageous or provocative opening gambit) or would I labour the point (a little sheepishly maybe, a hint of shame at the many long weeks since I last wrote something here). Or something else. And instead here I am, meta-blogging or meta-writing, whatever they call this curiously introspective form of reflection on the act of writing whatever it is that I’m writing, and thinking about how to go about explaining what finally spurred me back into action. Maybe there is only one way.

I was shamed into it. Pure and simple. Now, you might, if you knew something about the nature of this site and it’s recent history, think that it might be the continued chiding of Tony and his enthusiasm for my posts. Or the mockery of Garret. Or my girlfriend, or one of various women that haunt and taunt me. Or by the blogging efforts of any one of my peers, and how they continually manage to post under adverse conditions, while I do not.

You’d be wrong. I was shamed into it, because I really do want to write, and exercise my ability for the written word, and if Michael McDowell – Michael McDowell! That’s right! Him!- can write a blog, then I damn well better be writing! He is the leader of one of the smaller (well, after the upcoming election, probably non-existent) political parties here in Ireland, the Progressive Democrats, and my feelings on the whole subject of the aforementioned Progressive Democrats, Irish politics, all the related issues that go with it… It’s a whole can of worms. I’ll admit that the post was probably written by one of his runners or aides, but the point is that there is a blog out there where he is in some form or fashion publishing material under his name.

The site (www.rockthevote.ie) claims to have a blog for the leader of each major political party; they all have one entry and of course those entries are setting out their stalls. The idea is to motivate young people to vote so I guess it’s a good thing. The Irish in recent years have been less than good about partaking in elections; I don’t know if it’s cynicism, apathy or distractions cause by money, but hopefully they’ll take an interest this year because it could turn out to be one of the more important elections in the last few decades. Or rather, the eventual outcome (Ireland has a very convoluted election process, which is intended to be democratic but is complex and has occasionally unintentionally undemocratic results) of the election will be very important.

Yes, the upcoming election has been an obsession of mine recently because I think it’s going to be a big deal, and because the processes, the manoeuvres, the strategies, these all interest me. I’ll be back with my views on where I think this will all end up.

Other stuff that happened recently was as you saw in the previous post from about seven years ago that I turned thirty-four or so (I can’t remember any more, it’s a big number at any rate), my back got hurt, I’ve been trying to buy a new car (that is truly a recent and huge obsession), I’ve been coping with work and apathy in my life, and Oana came over to visit, which was truly a very big deal for me, and for anyone who had to listen to me go on about it.

Annette and Oana at the 12th Lock Bar Restaurant Hotel and whatever else have you. It does a lot. Are they just ever so slightly like sisters? Which is for me slightly disturbing? But they got on great. 9th April 2007.. Click image to view larger version »

Oana checks out the beach! She sure does. 13th April 2007. Click image to view larger version »

Oana contemplates how the beach economy might be based on shells, and ponders the effects of inflation… Actually, maybe she just thought they were pretty. Maybe. 13th April 2007. Click image to view larger version »

When worlds in my head collide spectacularly, albeit unknown to anyone else; Oana and a suburban commuter train. She really is a good Bizian, you know. 17th April 2007. Click image to view larger version »

Damn, those Eastern Europeans always have the best fun, don’t they? Foarte krezi! Oana, Pavel and Poudek go wild after a Baby Guinness too many in Doheny and Nesbitts… Clyner hides, meanwhile. 17th April 2007. Click image to view larger version »

So, I’m going to work hard at this, because there’s no way Michael McDowell or Pat Rabbitte are going to play me off my game. Even if they looked this good. There’ll be more.

That’s me. I have aged. I’m old. Older. No-one claimed it, there were no activists, it was just a sensational headline; it’s my birthday today and I’m thirty four as of 3pm this afternoon. It’s interesting, in the sense that I can remember when the idea of me being this old was a very abstract thought, it was just too far away. But here it is. I don’t know what to make of it other than I’m not married, I don’t have children, I don’t own property, I do have a car but it’s a little one, and I still don’t have an great deal of responsibilities to worry about. In other words, I don’t have very much more complication in my life than when I was twenty four apart from a relationship (So, I could be married and have children by the time I write my next post, although that could be any time within the next ten years. Don’t hold your breath.) and so, if age is affecting me then it must be a certain world weariness or physical degradation. I do feel the years pulling at me, I’m balding, slightly overweight, I don’t recover from physical activity or injuries as fast as I used to…

I’m not complaining, mind you. Just stating the facts.

Me standing on the beach in Wexford county, in February. Photo taken by my mother, Gerda. Taken 11th February 2007.. Click image to view larger version »

I went to the doctor on Friday, in fact, with a series of ailments collected over the months (Because of the spiralling cost of healthcare in Ireland, I’ve taken to doing what many Irish people do now which is waiting until various ailments reach either high levels of inconvenience/danger, or the required level of cost effectiveness per individual ailment is reached.) and I notice that more and more, these things are down to wear and tear.

In the meantime, if tonight, Tuesday 13th of March 2007, you find yourself in Dublin city centre somewhere, call into the Market Bar or call me on +353 86 856 2978 to see where we’re at. Next Saturday (the 17th) I’ll be on the town too, so catch me then instead if you want for a slightly rowdier time. It’s all good.